WA and NT lead rise in home loan numbers

By Terry Ryder, 11th September 2012

Nothing changes in real estate: the ABS has released some solid numbers for home loans and builder lobby groups like the HIA and the MBA have put their usual depressed slant on it.

The latest figures from the ABS show that the number of loans in July was up 2% on July 2011, continuing a trend of moderate improvement this year.

Mortgage broker Loan Market says that, overall, the home finance picture remains in recovery mode from the low levels of 2011.

Western Australia and the Northern Territory have both enjoyed strong growth in the past 12 months.

But if you read newspapers you will be hearing the HIA/MBA viewpoint that we have a crisis.

A more sensible voice is provided by Loan Market corporate spokesperson Paul Smith, who says: “We are likely to see further minimal growth until additional economic incentives are applied.

"While we have seen some modest improvements after a few interest rate cuts earlier this year, these latest ABS numbers demonstrate the cautious nature of consumers. Many are simply waiting to get into the market when they believe conditions are right.”

This basically means that the average punter, being a herd animal, is waiting to read that the market is rising - and will miss the best opportunities to buy well.

"Leading the resurgent numbers on month-to-month results is the NT, which is up 23.4% on July 2012, while WA has seen a 15.3% increase," Smith says.

"At the other end of the scale, Tasmania experienced a 9.3% drop over the 12 months although there had been a 4.1% improvement in the last six months."

Terry Ryder

Terry is the owner and creator of hotspotting.com.au, which provides information to property investors on how to identify emerging markets before they’re common knowledge.

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