2010 tips show show the value of Hotspotting

Posted on 21/01/2011  

Real estate broadcaster Kevin Turner put me on the spot recently by reviewing my 2010 Hotspotting tips on his Sydney and Brisbane radio shows.

In January 2010 he had asked me to nominate one location in each state and territory that I expected to out-perform the general market. Twelve months on he delivered a report card on my 2010 tips and asked for my 2011 forecasts.

All the locations I selected 12 months ago did well in 2010 and most of them did outstandingly well always remembering that I recommend areas for the long-term and dont always expect them to shine within 12 months.

The locations I nominated at the start of 2010, with their outcomes at the end of the year, are as follows:-

ACT: Gungahlin - Canberra turned in its usual solid performance in 2010 and the median house price in Gungahlin grew 10% over the year.

NSW: Orange - The median house price for Orange grew 8.5% last year. This regional city is only just beginning a prolonged growth phase, boosted by a $2 billion expansion of its gold mine and a $250 million upgrade of its hospital.

NT: Palmerston - 2010 was a year in which prices in Darwin started to come off the boil, but the suburbs in the satellite city of Palmerston continued to shine Durack up 20%, Gunn up 26%, Moulden and Gray up 15%, and Rosebery up 35%.

QLD: Woolloongabba - Brisbane prices generally showed little growth in 2010 but Woolloongabba increased 8.5% as buyers started to realize its growing potential.

SA: Port Adelaide precinct - suburbs in this area of Adelaide showed above-average growth last year, including Glanville (up 14%), Alberton (up 12%) and Birkenhead (up 15%).

TAS: Launceston - Tasmania had a pretty lean year in 2010 but the city of Launceston did well including the suburbs of Launceston (up 14%), South Launceston (up 15%) and Mowbray (up 16%).

VIC: Mornington Peninsula - This is the precinct with the strongest long-term capital growth performance in the Melbourne metropolitan area and 2010 continued the trend. Dromana rose 17%, Safety Beach 10%, Rye 15%, Rosebud West 16% and Rosebud 22%.

WA: Joondalup precinct - Perth overall had a subdued market in 2010, with some sources suggesting prices went backwards. But suburbs in the Joondalup precinct in the citys north out-performed: Edgewater grew 7%, Heathridge 9% and Currambine 16%.

The tips I gave to Turner this month - the areas I'm expecting to out-perform in 2011 and beyond - are as follows:-

ACT: Queanbeyan - Canberra is bursting at the seams and part of its growth is spilling over into Queanbeyan, where the house prices are a little lower than the Canberra average.

NSW: Newcastle and the Hunter Valley - there's more job-creating infrastructure happening in this region than in Sydney, including road, rail and port facilities. Newcastle and valley towns like Singleton and Muswellbrook offer affordable prices and strong growth prospects.

NT: Darwin rural-residential - Darwin is no longer pumping, but rural-residential areas like Howard Springs, Bees Creek, Coolalinga and Humpty Doo are attracting developers and investors - and have faster connections to the city via the Tiger Brennan Drive upgrade.

QLD: Gladstone - this is a bit of no-brainer. The level of investment targeted on this regional city is unprecedented in Australian history with over $80 billion in new projects. Tens of thousands of jobs are being created and real estate will react.

SA: Whyalla - SA's second city is entering a period of prosperity, with a number of billion-dollar developments in the pipeline. Real estate is cheap and good returns are available.

TAS: Kingston - prospects look grim for Tasmania this year, with not much going right with its economy and government. But there are always exceptions and bayside Kingston, south of Hobart, is one - it has a major new shopping centre, a new school and a major road bypass project happening.

VIC: Warrnambool - this is a Sea Change town and the key regional centre for Victoria's south-west. It is growing and has a strong and diversified economy. A new energy-generation province in emerging on its doorstep to challenge the Latrobe Valley - with two gas-fired power stations and multiple wind farms, some of them billion-dollar enterprises.

WA: Geraldton - I've been singing Geraldton's praises for some time and 2011 looms as the year in which it really starts to deliver. A strong regional centre with multiple economic pistons pumping, it has mine expansions in its vicinity and the prospect of the new $4 billion port construction.

This time next year we'll see how those locations performed.


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