Price Data Depicts Multiple Market Scenarios

Posted on 17/10/2017  
Price Data Depicts Multiple Market Scenarios

Hobart is now the leading capital city on house price growth, challenged by Melbourne, with Canberra ranked third, according to Hotspotting analysis of data from three major research sources.

The figures on the annual growth in house prices in eight capital cities illustrates the many different scenarios being played out in markets around Australia.

The rate of price growth in Sydney is in decline, while Melbourne’s growth rate remains high. The growth rates in both Hobart and Canberra are rising, while Adelaide and Brisbane remain stuck in very moderate growth rates – and Perth and Darwin still have falling prices, although the rate of decline is less than before.

Hotspotting examined the latest price growth data for housing markets in the eight cities from three sources: Domain, SQM Research and CoreLogic.

According to both Domain and CoreLogic, Hobart now has the highest annual growth in house prices, with both recording an annual rise of about 15%. SQM ranks Hobart second, with an 11% annual rise.

SQM ranks Melbourne No.1 with an annual increase of 19%, but the other two sources record Melbourne growth around 13-14%, which places the Victoria capital in second place behind Hobart.

The three sources provide a broad range of annual house price growth for Canberra – from 9% (CoreLogic) and 10.5% (Domain) to 16% (SQM).

The waning Sydney market now ranks 4th in the capital city pecking order. Both Domain (8%) and SQM (9.5%) no longer record double-digit annual growth for Sydney, although CoreLogic’s figure is 11%.

All three sources agree than Brisbane and Adelaide are continuing to deliver only moderate price growth overall. Adelaide is up about 4%, according to Domain and SQM, while CoreLogic says 5.5%.

Brisbane ranks sixth with all three sources, with annual growth around 3-4%. While many recent surveys and reports indicate growing national interest in Brisbane as the next major growth market, it’s not yet showing up in the price data.

Perth and Darwin continue to jostle for the last two positions on the ranking table. Prices are still falling in these cities, although the rate of decline is considerably less pronounced than earlier.

All sources have Perth house prices down about 3% in annual terms, while Darwin has declined 1.3% (CoreLogic), 1.9% (SQM) or 2.8% (Domain) in the past 12 months.

The average across the eight capital cities is annual growth of 9% (CoreLogic), 10.6% (SQM) or 10.8% (Domain0 – but, as the figures show, there are multiple scenarios happening in the major cities.

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