Finding tomorrow’s hot property, TODAY

In my experience, most people who have a loud view about scrapping negative gearing are people who can’t explain what it is, how it works, why it’s bad and how ending it would solve all the problems in the housing industry.

Mostly, what’s in play with this issue is THE POLITICS OF ENVY – that nagging feeling some people have, that others are doing better than they are, or are receiving benefits that they are not, and therefore need to be squashed.

As a famous Indian guru once observed, some people try to be tall by cutting off the heads of others.

Contrast that with the views that are expressed when they come from people with the expertise and experience to understand what negative gearing is, how it works and what the consequences would be if it was removed.

A recent poll of such people found that the disadvantages would outweigh the advantages.

Before delving into the comments of experts who have been interviewed by news media about this recently, let me remind everyone that Australia DID end negative gearing in the 1980s and within two years the same Federal Labor Government that scrapped it, did a major backflip and reinstated it.

Why? Because it caused a serious shortage of rental properties and higher rents. And it didn’t bring down property prices or improve housing affordability.

Let me also remind you that more recently New Zealand put an end of negative gearing tax benefits and right now that nation’s government is reinstating it – because, as happened in Australia in the 1980s, the upshot was a rental shortage and higher rents.

In the light of those precedents, you have to wonder why we’re having this debate at all.

Now, returning to a recent survey of so-called experts polled by the Australian Financial Review – the majority view, arising from that survey, was that the consequences of changing tax arrangements for property investment are likely to include higher rents.

Why? Because investors would exit the housing market, causing a further drop in supply of rental homes at a time when Australia has the lowest vacancy rates ever recorded.

Analysts polled in the quarterly Australian Financial Review property survey, overall, painted a “BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR” scenario amid a national debate over the merits of changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax – which is usually described by media, inaccurately and unfairly, as a CONCESSION.

Those polls said any benefit to first home buyers from any price falls – which are hypothetical and not based on any precedent or research – as investors exit the market would be modest, potentially short-term and effectively traded off against a consequent squeeze in supply.

Here’s one prediction from a respondent to the survey:

He says: “By lowering the after-tax return to investors, any move to wind back the negative gearing benefit and increase capital gains tax would lead to a fall in investor demand for housing and a short-term fall in prices, say of 3-4 per cent.” 

However, those comments from Australia’s worst forecaster of residential property outcomes, AMP chief economist Shane Oliver – so the forecast that property prices would fall is somewhat dubious. That certainly didn’t happen in Australia in the 1980s or in New Zealand after they, more recently, ended negative gearing.

In any case, Oliver goes on to say: “However, this (slight fall in prices) is likely to be short-lived as less investor participation in the property market would ultimately lead to a lower supply of new homes to the property market, higher rents and then a blowback to higher prices.

“It will do nothing to fix the basic problem which is a chronic undersupply of housing relative to population-driven demand.”

That much he got right.

Proptrack’s executive manager for economic research, Cameron Kusher, said the removal of negative gearing and increasing capital gains tax might marginally reduce house prices, but consequent discouragement to investment would reduce supply.

He said” “It’s important to look at the taxation system holistically rather than in a vacuum, especially whilst the rental market remains challenged.”

In other words, there would be more disadvantages than advantages.

Barrenjoey’s chief economist Jo Masters warned of the “unintended consequences” of modifying the current settings.

She said: “Negative gearing and capital gains tax reform alone are not a silver bullet and need to be debated both in the context of broad tax reform, and the other levers available to the housing sector, including supply.”

Nicola Powell, Domain’s chief of research and economics, said that it was “a common misconception” that the negative gearing and CGT provisions were “primarily enjoyed” by wealthy, older Australians. 

Powell said most investors own just one property, and a larger share of them are under 50.

She said: “If negative gearing were removed or scaled back, younger, more financially vulnerable investors – especially those with just a single property – would be the first to feel the impact, potentially leading them to sell. Meanwhile, wealthier investors, who are more likely to be positively geared, have greater financial flexibility and would be less affected.”

Like other respondents, Jarden analyst Lou Pirenc says any benefit from the departure of some investors from the market it would come at a cost.

He said: “Longer term, growth to new housing supply could be further weakened with less incentives for investors to enter the market, especially as the cost of owning an investment property currently remains unattractive.

“This,” he said, “could potentially see house prices RISE longer term as the imbalance between demand and supply exacerbates.”

Indeed. So the consensus among those commentators is that removing negative gearing tax benefits and increasing capital gains tax would not provide any long-term improvement in housing affordability but would reduce the supply of housing, particularly rental homes, and PUT FURTHER UPWARD PRESSURE ON RENTS.

But try telling that to the Greens, whose draconian anti-real estate policies were a primary reason they were the big losers in the Queensland state election at the weekend.

breaking-news
Find out how much your home is worth in today’s market. Get an instant market update, obligation-free. Gain insight into what your property is valued at, find out its potential rental yield and more.

Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Melbourne

Not all investment property tax depreciation schedules are built the same. They should be but the reality is, like many things in the property world, all is not as it seems. The devil is in the details—and the details are everywhere. But relax, at Washington Brown we take care of every last one.

Established in 1978, Washington Brown is one of Australia’s oldest and most respected quantity surveying organisations.

Each year, we prepare more than 13,500 reports, delivering $1.5 billion in depreciation savings.

At Triple Zero Property, we believe in delivering a seamless experience tailored to your needs. From personalised consultations and thorough research to ensuring transparent fixed-price building contracts and competitive pricing, we are committed to excellence at every stage. Our dedicated team oversees every aspect of your property build, from initial planning and throughout the construction process.

Discover how our comprehensive approach and commitment to client satisfaction sets us apart in in creating wealth through property in Australia.

Established in 2005, Reventon has built on a strong foundation in property investment and progressively expanded the business over the years. Today, they offer a complete range of property and financial services that includes, financial planning, accounting, mortgage broking, buyers advocacy and property management.

Reventon is a fully-integrated holistic wealth and financial planning provider founded by serial entrepreneur, international speaker, wealth specialist and company CEO Chris Christofi.

With Reventon, clients benefit from having all their needs met through a single relationship with a dedicated, experienced and trusted team. Our seamless service offers more convenience, greater control and ultimately a better client experience with better financial outcomes.

The propertybuyer team has been in business over 23 years and purchased over 4000 properties. Propertybuyer is a totally independent “Buyers’ Agency” focused on searching, negotiating and buying property in Australia for home buyers and investors. Our goal for each client is the “right property, at the right price, every time”.

We help you:

• Create a clear strategy and realistic “buyers brief”
• Provide access to “off market listings” – properties that are not advertised
• Provide research on the best suburbs with good prospects for capital growth and yield
• Save time – Typically we find the ideal property within 30 to 60 days of engagement
• Negotiate the lowest possible price (ie protect your clients from paying too much!)
• Give accurate appraisals and excellent local knowledge, Propertybuyer is currently the most awarded Buyers’ Agency in Australia, with 37 Awards for Excellence.

We never sell property so we are truly independent – we are not paid by selling agents or developers, so we never have a conflict of interest. This means we can devote ourselves wholly to looking after your best interests.

Plenitude Wealth is a holistic wealth management firm that is dedicated to making a positive change to the financial landscape of Australia and ultimately the world through creating an educational foundation of social awareness, enterprise and social consciousness.

We are passionate about all things property! This passion is about so much more than just property investments, numbers, and spreadsheets, it is about the relationships and genuine care we build with our clients.

We are exceptionally privileged when we are asked to assist our clients to help grow their investment property portfolios or even kick start their first purchase. Unlike most Buyers Agents, we are selective about our clients and do not try and do as many sales as possible – the emphasis is always on quality over quantity!

Our goal is not only to find the ultimate solution for them but to do so in a manner that ensures continued success by choosing locations primed for capital growth and the right cash flow for our client’s goals.

Optalife Wealth works with you to build financial security by providing clarity and confidence about your future. We work with you to build your financial plan, clearly defining what your future looks like and laying out clear and understandable steps for you to achieve.

There is no one size fits all here. We design your plan like a financial roadmap, tailored to your specific situation and what living your optimal life means to you. Like anything in life, having a clear plan increases the likelihood success and having a whole team working alongside you makes reaching your dreams one step closer.

Financebetter is here to guide you through the complexities of the financial world. Our experienced team of experts, including accountants, financial advisors, and investment analysts, is dedicated to delivering exceptional service and results.

Our comprehensive solutions and personalized guidance empower you to achieve your financial goals. Partner with us and experience the Financebetter advantage on your journey to success.

Bond Conveyancing is a licensed Law Firm designed to remove the stress out of buying or selling property in a simple, secure and affordable way. Bond Conveyancing is technology enabled but always people first.

Bond Conveyancing consists of an experienced team of conveyancers and lawyers qualified and skilled in property settlements and transfers. But they are not just about the property. Bond Conveyancing is people first, always. We understand that this is a big moment in your life and our timeliness and effectiveness in communicating with you comes second only to our diligence in ensuring your property settlement goes as smoothly as possible.

Our service puts a fully licenced Buyer’s Agent and Qualified Property Investment Adviser right at your side, to ensure that your interests are being protected at all times and your next investment property purchase achieves maximum success. Leverage off our extensive experience, professional know-how, and independent research to ensure that you’re accessing the best property opportunities available Australia-wide.Buying Properties in Sydney / Melbourne / Brisbane / Adelaide we operate on a client first approach, and will never sell you any property. We are 100% fee for service, providing independent & unbiased advice from qualified advisers and Buyer’s Agents. We set the standard in providing exclusive, one-on-one, independent, trusted and expert advice, tailored individually to suit your particular needs.

Subscribe to our newsletter today and receive a FREE copy of How To Identify Hotspots