One of the core reasons the national shortage of dwellings is so serious is that it coincides with a record increase in the nation’s population.
The latest data shows that Australia’s population grew 651,000 in 2023, the highest number in the nation’s history.
84% of that growth was attributed to overseas migration.
Now, the record level of population growth last year did NOT cause the shortage of dwellings including the under-supply of rental homes.
The seeds of the shortage were sewn years earlier by bad government policy and have been exacerbated by bad governance every year since.
But that very high level of population growth has made a serious problem more dire.
Australia now has a population of 27 million, up 2.5% in 2023.
All states and territories recorded population growth during last year, although many of them were net losers of population to interstate migration.
It was overseas migration and natural increase that allowed the weakest jurisdictions to record increases, despite losing population from people leaving to live elsewhere in Australia.
New South Wales, the most populous state, did not record the biggest rise in numbers – Victoria added more to its population (186,491) than NSW did (185,459) both in raw numbers and in percentage terms.
Queensland also had a big rise, adding 141,378 people – because it had by far the largest net gain from interstate migration.
Notably, every state and territory was a net loser through interstate migration EXCEPT Queensland and Western Australia – which means lots of people are relocating and most of them are moving to Queensland or to WA.
WA in fact recorded the biggest population increase in percentage terms last year, rising 3.31%, followed by Victoria (up 2.78%) and Queensland (2.62%)
The places with the weakest growth were Tasmania and the Northern Territory, which both were net losers to internal migration but gained a little from overseas migration.
NSW made the biggest gains from overseas migrations but was the biggest net loser from internal migration.
So, what does all that mean for real estate?
Based on the population trends, where would you be buying real estate?
Based on these numbers, you would be focusing on Queensland and Victoria, as well as WA – although we continue to urge caution on the frenzied Perth market.
And where would you be avoiding? Tasmania and the Northern Territory, which both have weak economies and negative population figures.
But it pays to keep in mind that there is data to consider OTHER THAN population trends.
