Terry’s View: “Slowdown” Is Media Fiction
The start of a new year inevitably brings a flurry of media commentary about what the housing market supposedly did in December and what it means for the year ahead, with negative forecasts predominating.
And, almost on cue, multiple media outlets have published reports claiming price growth “stalled” or “lost steam” in December, and that this signals a turning point for prices in 2026.
Together, they create an impression that something meaningful has occurred. In reality, these articles amount to little more than misinformation dressed up as analysis.
The central assertion common to all these pieces is that a “soft” December carries deep significance for 2026. Some have highlighted small dips in Sydney and Melbourne as the product of affordability pressures and interest rate speculation. Others have suggested the seasonal slowdown was evidence of a national “speed bump” in prices and market weakness emerging in early 2026.
What these interpretations share is an exaggerated importance placed on a monthly figure that is statistically insignificant. One month of data proves nothing. Real estate markets, unlike share markets, are slow to move and slower to reveal meaningful trends. We’ve seen that repeatedly in recent years.
Monthly movements are often influenced by seasonal factors, the mix of properties sold and the flaws in the methodology of the major data companies. Anyone with serious experience in property understands that credible analysis looks at longer trajectories, not an isolated number from December when everything slows down for the festive season.
The second consistent flaw in these articles is the unexamined assumption that the so-called December “slump” – what little of it there was – has been caused by “interest rate fears”.
Each journalist adopted this claim uncritically, but nowhere was there evidence that buyers are suddenly paralysed by rate speculation. No surveys were cited. No behavioural data was presented. No buyer research was referenced. The journalists simply repeated an assertion because it sounded plausible to them, with their limited knowledge of real estate dynamics.
This reveals something important: when journalists don’t really understand how real estate markets work, they default to interest rates as the explanation for everything. It is the media’s favourite crutch.
But markets are more complex. Price performance in 2025 was driven by chronic undersupply at a time of high buyer demand. That structural imbalance did not disappear in December. Nor does it vanish because someone at the RBA makes an ambiguous comment.
What matters are the longer-term trends – and they all point to strong buyer activity in 2026 at a time of short supply. And that’s a recipe for further price growth.
