The big factor for the Brisbane property market is that the future is strong.
Brisbane and SEQ lead the nation on population growth from internal migration – and there is a major infrastructure spend under way, with big ticket projects totalling around $30 billion under construction.
And there is more to come, because Brisbane and SEQ needs to invest in infrastructure to get ready for the 2032 Olympics.
This means that, while there will be ups and downs along the way, Brisbane will be a growth market for the next 10 years at least.
At the moment, Brisbane remains a national leader on price growth although its performance on sales activity has declined a little so far this year, in a period impacted by major disruption.
Hotspotting’s latest quarterly survey of sales activity has classified 153 suburbs as either rising or consistency markets, compared with 169 in the survey three months earlier and 180 in the one before that.
Our quarterly analyses indicate that the Brisbane market peaked in the second half of 2021 and, in terms of sales volumes, has been gradually subsiding since then.
The number of suburbs classified as rising markets in the eight quarterly surveys of the past two years shows the pattern of the market: 56, 124, 141, 163, 168, 159, 130.
This indicates that the market may have passed its peak, although in a period of major disruption, but remains at levels much higher than historic norms. In the six years prior to 2021, the average number of rising markets in our quarterly surveys was 42 – so the numbers in the latest survey are three times higher than that average.
The period under review featured major “rain bomb” events in Brisbane, including significant floods in late February/early March. This undoubtedly affected sales numbers, although prices have remained elevated. There have also been a series of interest rate rises and an orgy of negative media.
The sales activity pattern across Greater Brisbane shows that the affordable outer-ring areas have maintained – or in some cases improved on – their strong levels, but some middle- and inner-ring areas have weakened.
The busiest markets include Logan City, Ipswich City, the Moreton Bay Region and Redland City – which comprise the more affordable sections of the Greater Brisbane market.
The markets which have shown the greatest reduction in their sales activity patterns are the Brisbane-inner and Brisbane-south precincts – both areas impacted by the February/March flooding.
In our previous survey three months earlier, 20 of the 23 Brisbane-inner suburbs were rising markets; in our latest survey there were 11 rising and 4 consistency markets, which is still a solid position, though less buoyant than before.
Brisbane-south has declined the most: of the 31 suburbs in our analysis, 23 were rising markets three months earlier – but only 13 in the latest one.
Amid all the disruption, Brisbane remains a national leader on house price growth, with its median price up 27% in the 12 months to June.
Every suburb in the Greater Brisbane area recorded house price growth in the past year and 96% of suburbs had double-digit increases. Three-quarters of Brisbane area suburbs rose by more than 20%.
All but two suburbs recorded house price growth in the most recent quarter, with two-thirds rising by more than 5% in the quarter.
Apartment markets have also been lifting, with 93% of suburbs with unit markets delivering annual increases in their median prices.
The Moreton Bay Region in the north of Greater Brisbane has been one of the outstanding markets: 33 suburbs have had growth above 20% in their median house prices in the past 12 months.
So, if you’re hearing from mainstream media that prices are falling everywhere across Australia, it certainly doesn’t apply across the Greater Brisbane area, especially in those more affordable locations.