The latest NAB survey suggests house prices will be up 8% this year and continue to rise next year.
We’re accustomed to the big banks predicting major price decline or seriously under- estimating the growth years.
They forecast prices would collapse in 2020 when Covid struck (prices rose), they suggested 5-6% growth in 2021 (prices rose 25%) and they started 2023 with forecasts of prices dropping 15-20% (they’ve been rising steadily all year).
If journalists were doing their job credibly, they would stop publishing price forecasts from the major banks, given their track records.
Apparently, the clickbait potential is irresistible. So, for what it’s worth, the NAB report suggests house prices will rise 5% on average in 2024, but with larger increases in Brisbane, Adelaide and Melbourne.
My experience of this survey over the years is that it’s very conservative and usually under- estimates our property markets. And I think that will be the case with this edition: I expect prices to rise by more than NAB is suggesting.