Terry’s View: Sales trends provide clues
One of the key metrics tracked by Hotspotting to understand property markets is sales volumes because they provide a forward indicator of what might happen with prices in individual markets.
Experience shows that sales activity changes first and prices react later, sometimes several months after the market has turned (whether it be up or down).
New data from PropTrack compares sales activity in the eight capital cities in the first 12 weeks of 2024, with the same period in 2023. It shows a 24% increase in sales volumes nationwide, with particularly notable rises in Melbourne and Sydney – and Brisbane, Adelaide, Canberra and Darwin also recording significant uplift in buyer demand.
Melbourne’s emphatic 38% increase may be a precursor to better price performance, with the Victorian capital having lagged other cities on price growth last year.
Perhaps the most notable statistic is the one for Perth, which has recorded no meaningful rise in sales activity compared to last year. I see this as another indicator that the Perth market has peaked, suggesting it’s a dangerous time to be speculating in this market.
