Some of the nation’s leading economists have just released their forecasts for Australian property prices in 2023.
Now, I imagine you think I’ve made a mistake and that I meant to says that they’ve made their predictions for property prices next year, in 2024.
But No, they’ve made their forecasts for house prices in Australia this year – in late October.
A little over two months before the end of the year, they’re telling us what they expect to happen with property prices in 2023.
This is according to a Bloomberg survey of 13 so-called leading economists published in the nation’s worst tabloid rag, the Australian Financial Review.
Now, you can’t blame economists for leaving it until the year is almost over to make their forecasts about property price outcomes for the year – because this is something they’re really bad at.
Back in January, all the Big Four bank economists made their predictions for house prices in 2023 and they all told us that house prices would fall 15% to 20% this year.
Of course, nothing like that has happened. Prices have been rising steadily in most markets across the nation.
And this is the norm for major bank economists – their track record in forecasting house prices is so laughably bad you have to wonder how they keep their highly-paid jobs.
So, we can forgive economists to leaving it until October to make a definitive forecast for the year.
The Financial review reacted to these stunning revelations with a headline which declared “House Prices Poised To Rise This Year” and an opening statement that “Australian house prices are poised for an annual rebound …”
The West Australian newspaper ran the same story with a headline of “Australian housing set for its first rebound …”
Now, keep in mind that house prices have been rising in most major markets across the nation since the start of this calendar year.
According to CoreLogic, Australian house prices rose 6.5% overall in the first nine months of the year. In Brisbane and Perth they’ve increased 9% already this year and in Sydney by 11%.
But apparently no one told the journalists who work at the Financial Review.
Because they’re now, in late October, predicting that house price are POISED to recover.
It would be amusing if it wasn’t so serious.